When you're in the poop, strapped for dosh and living off credit, just about the last thing you do is to pick a fight with your lenders. That's why it's the end game for the Greeks as EU Finance Ministers get tough. Greece faces an ultimatum, either get your own house in order or face the consequences. It's hard to know how much of the rhetoric from the EU is designed to bolster Greek's Socialist Government in its attempts to introduce economic austerity and how much of it is real steel. But one thing is certain, international investors in sovereign debt aren't convinced by the Greek's plan to deal with its runaway deficit.

Brian Cowen knows full well that there, but for a backlash from the private sector, goes Ireland. Make no mistake, Ireland came within a hairs breath of Greece's fate when the Government dallied with a reckless compromise that involved substituting public sector pay cuts with unpaid holidays in a system already corrupted by sick leave and hog-tied by increments for all. Brian Cowen could so easily have been be in the dock with George Papandreou facing into an emergency budget right now. Greece is a harsh reminder of what happens when you attempt to cod markets with bull about spending cuts that avoid sacred cows like public sector pay.

There will be those in the Irish extreme left gaping enviously at their Greek counterparts enjoying the drumbeats of rebellion, flag waving, marching and social unrest – it's what they crave most. They look to the past to contextualise Ireland's plight as an Edwardian conflict between the unchecked forces of capitalism and the ordinary, decent and vulnerable worker. Thank heaven most Irish people don't buy a word of it and see plenty of evidence of rights and processes for resolving disputes. It also helps that the can-do part of our economy is free from the self destructive grip of old fashioned union demagogues that would, if they had the power today, join their fellow Greek comrades in glorious folly and shut down the country.

Ireland avoided the hammer blow this time because the Government has committed to a series of tough budgets. But it was a close call. Next up is the waste. If we're not getting value for money we simply must cut regardless of the counter pressure from vested interests. That means quangoes, sickies, grade-linked increases in pensions, age-related increments, fattened expenses, social welfare fraud and disincentives to go back to work are next up on the chopping block. Scarce money must go to the neediest and most deserving only, that means old age pensions, disability income and families swamped in mortgage debt due to unemployment.

There can be no room for complacency. The sooner Brian Lenihan lays down the marker for next December's budget the better. Ireland has to continue to put clear blue water between its economy and Greece by following a series of steps that are credible and not just politically digestible. Don't think for a minute that a Cowen-led Government has a universal spine for this job or that a replacement coalition with a strong Labour element would be any better. Last year's budget was touch and go, carried over the line by the stubbornness and unassailable arguments presented by the Minster for Finance in the face of jellies in the Cabinet. Next December we mightn't be as fortunate.

Sovereign debt is the new pressure point of the banking crisis. Right now the focus is on Greek bonds but Greece is really just a proxy for the Euro which is being tested by speculators betting that Euro members will fail to find a convincing solution to the common problem of unstable economies. Expect the old guard, led by Germany and France, to figure out a new financial architecture to save Greek, Spanish, Portuguese, Italian and Irish bonds from speculators.

The attention then will switch to sterling and finally to the biggest debtor in the world the reserve currency the Dollar. While I expect the Dollar to strengthen in the short term against the Euro this has more to do with the perceived weakness of Europe's main currency and less to do with Dollar strength. When the extra US Government spending is stripped out of its GDP which, for the calendar year 2009 was just 0.1%, the US economy contracted by 7%.

But as regular readers will know I still expect that the strength of the US recovery will surprise. Its economy grew 5% in the last quarter but its Government debt is unlikely to be cleared by raising taxes on economic resurgence. You simply can't massively increase money supply without debasing your currency despite what central banking alchemists tell you about reversing the effect in time to avoid inflation. That's why prices remain strong for precious metals, especially gold, trading yesterday at $1080 per ounce (that's about €788) and silver trading at $15.30 (a little over €11) per ounce. Of the two popular metals, silver appears best positioned in the short term. So why have gold and silver have done better than shares over the past three to ten years?

• Each acts as a store of value, a reserve currency that is bought on fears of inflation, uncertainty and international tensions
• Silver mining is under pressure to keep up with demand including for industrial uses in photography, solar panels etc.
• Both should act as a partial hedge against high inflation on the one hand and a depression on the other. In the last high inflation decade silver rose 25 times from a floor of $1.50 in 1970 to fifty bucks an ounce ten years later.
• The world endowment of silver estimated at 12 billion ounces in 1900 is thought to have declined to less than two billion ounces today.
• Since the collapse from silver's previous high in 1980 as the world entered a prolonged low inflation phase, silver has traded on average at 40 to 1 compared to gold –that's a price of $27 based on yesterday's gold price. Instead, at $15.30 per ounce it looks undervalued since it takes 70 ounces of silver to equal to one ounce of gold.

But be warned taking a position in gold or silver is not for the faint-hearted or for money you can't afford to see plummet in value. Both are well positioned to respond to either another depression or very high inflation, but the price of gold and silver could fall sharply if we experience the perfect economic landing – steady growth, a strengthening dollar ,a reducing US deficit, little price inflation and affordable commodity costs.

You can get into either gold or silver by purchasing a minimum of $10,000 (that's about €7,300) Perth Mint Certificates from Dublin-based GoldCorp or you can simply invest in gold and silver funds that trade on the London Stock Exchange through any stockbroker like on-line, TD Waterhouse, who charge just €20 per trade.

This is not a green light to dash to your jewelers – that's called shopping!

Grocery shoppers beware. Tanaiste Mary Coughlan TD, it seems, has embarked on a solo run at the behest of food suppliers and farmers that will reverse the gains made by consumers in the Irish grocery market. This means higher prices for you. Despite a custom-built section for the grocery sector in the Competition Act 2006 that deals head-on with abuse of dominance, hello money, price fixing and coercion, Mary Coughlan wants to reward her agri-pals with a special code of conduct that is heavily skewed in favour of suppliers and comes with its very own police force.

In a brazen move, the former Minister for Agriculture, whose own border constituency twice rejected the Lisbon Treaty, launched her plans without any consultation with The Competition Authority despite its clear expertise in the area. Neither is it believed she consulted the NCA. Both agencies report to her and are responsible for consumer welfare. Tellingly the surprise news of the Tanaiste's plans was broken by The Minister for Agriculture.

The Irish Competition Authority is thought to be deeply unhappy. Anecdotal media reports that powerfully positioned retailers are breaking Irish law has not been supported by evidence to the Competition Authority which has, diplomatically, suggested her proposals are anti-competitive and recommended instead that punitive damages should be used as a deterrent and awarded to any Irish food supplier who takes a successful civil action against retailers under Competition Law.

Lobbyists claim that suppliers won't come forward because of fears of being delisted by retailers. Perhaps so, but a much bigger fear is these unsubstantiated claims of breaches of competition law is being used as a smoke screen for good old fashioned protectionism to artificially cocoon suppliers from the competitive threat posed by Sterling's devaluation. The only sustainable response is more efficiency, more competition, less protectionism and robust Government action on the sources of Ireland's high business costs – rates, waste, utilities, energy and now a credit drought. But The Competition Authority isn't the only agency to believe the Minister's move is protectionist. The ESRI, which is not hampered by relying on the Minister's largesse for its annual budget, has been scathing in its criticism, stating bluntly that Coughlan will increase prices and damage the economy. After all if Irish suppliers increase costs, retailers will simply respond by increasing food imports to meet consumer demand for low prices.

Despite the galling consumer rhetoric contained in the Tanaiste's code, it contains no consumer welfare test or competition test and in further evidence of the food lobby's reach, the main opposition party, Fine Gael, has a broadly similar bill in its pre-election armoury. Consumers, finally benefitting from the removal of the Groceries Order, increased competition, falling prices and competition from Northern Ireland are to be punished for exercising freedom of choice. Irish food prices are to go up not down in the shops if Mary gets her way.

This won't do at all. Both the Competition Authority and the NCA must be as freely outspoken as the ESRI and not hid behind coded language in alternative proposals because they fear open confrontation with their paymaster. Minister Coughlan must be told bluntly that nobody is fooled - her proposals for the grocery market is protectionist, self-defeating and short-sighted.

The sooner this ill conceived gambit is defeated, the better, ideally, by removing Minister Mary Coughlan from Enterprise, Trade and Employment and replacing her with a minister prepared to first consult with its competition and consumer agencies before bending to lobbyists. In the meantime, listen out for food lobbyists and their political lackeys as they argue that their snazzy new code of conduct is really for your benefit. Don't believe a word of it.

Mary's Mad Manifesto

Shops to be banned from;

• Varying terms without supplier agreement
• Seeking contribution to marketing costs
• Getting paid for shrinkage, wastage or better positioning
• Must pay compensation for forecasting errors